Jadran LP 3–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac: Result & Stats

Jadran LP

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

10/31/2025

Second NL · Round 11NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jadran LP60%

×Draw21%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jadran LPExpected goals in this matchHrvatski Dragovoljac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.02

Jadran LP

1.99

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.02

Jadran LP creates 95% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

2.18

creates per match

1.02

1.03

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Jadran LP

2.18

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.02

allows per match

Jadran LP

1.03

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

Hrvatski Dragovoljac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw

81%

Jadran LP or Hrvatski Dragovoljac

79%

Draw or Hrvatski Dragovoljac

40%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+

36%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals

86%

Jadran LP 2+ goals

59%

Jadran LP 3+ goals

32%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals

64%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals

27%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)

76%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.18 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.99

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.02 + Jadran LP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jadran LP scores more

60%

level

21%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more

19%

Jadran LP at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff