Hrvatski Dragovoljac 0–5 Jadran LP: Result & Stats

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Jadran LP

5/1/2026

Second NL · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac30%

×Draw27%

Jadran LP43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hrvatski DragovoljacExpected goals in this matchJadran LP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.34

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.07

Jadran LP

1.34

Jadran LP creates 25% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

1.22

creates per match

1.38

1.31

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.22

Jadran LP

1.38

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.31

Jadran LP

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

Jadran LP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw

57%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or Jadran LP

73%

Draw or Jadran LP

70%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+

11%

Jadran LP wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals

66%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals

29%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals

9%

Jadran LP 1+ goals

74%

Jadran LP 2+ goals

39%

Jadran LP 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)

41%

Jadran LP (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.22 + Jadran LP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Jadran LP attack 1.38 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more

30%

level

27%

Jadran LP scores more

43%

Jadran LP at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff