Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jadran LP vs Hrvace — Second NL 2022

Jadran LP
Jadran LP
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Hrvace
Hrvace
5/31/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 30Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jadran LP54%
×Draw22%
Hrvace24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran LP
1.96
Hrvace
1.26

Jadran LP creates 56% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jadran LP
2.18
Hrvace
1.49

allows per match

Jadran LP
1.03
Hrvace
1.73

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par
Hrvace+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

Hrvace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw
76%
Jadran LP or Hrvace
78%
Draw or Hrvace
46%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+
31%
Hrvace wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals
86%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
58%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
31%
Hrvace 1+ goals
72%
Hrvace 2+ goals
36%
Hrvace 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)
69%
Hrvace (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Hrvace away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.18 + Hrvace defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hrvace attack 1.49 + Jadran LP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jadran LP scores more
54%
level
22%
Hrvace scores more
24%

Jadran LP at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Jadran LP 0–6 Hrvace

Hrvace beat Jadran LP 6-0 in Second NL on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Igralište NK Jadran in Ploče.