Hrvace 2–0 Jadran LP: Result & Stats | Second NL

Hrvace

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jadran LP

3/2/2024

Second NL · Round 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hrvace39%

×Draw24%

Jadran LP36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HrvaceExpected goals in this matchJadran LP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.49

Hrvace

1.56

Jadran LP

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

2.18

creates per match

1.38

1.60

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Hrvace

2.18

Jadran LP

1.38

allows per match

Hrvace

1.60

Jadran LP

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hrvace+0.00on par

Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvace ↓

Jadran LP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hrvace or draw

64%

Hrvace or Jadran LP

76%

Draw or Jadran LP

61%

Winning margin

Hrvace wins by 2+

19%

Jadran LP wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hrvace 1+ goals

79%

Hrvace 2+ goals

46%

Hrvace 3+ goals

21%

Jadran LP 1+ goals

77%

Jadran LP 2+ goals

44%

Jadran LP 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hrvace (draw refunded)

52%

Jadran LP (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvace at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvace attack 2.18 + Jadran LP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.56

Jadran LP attack 1.38 + Hrvace defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hrvace scores more

39%

level

24%

Jadran LP scores more

36%

Hrvace at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hrvace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff