Jadran LP 2–0 Dugo Selo: Result & Stats | Second NL

Jadran LP

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dugo Selo

3/28/2026

Second NL · Round 21NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Jadran LP56%

×Draw22%

Dugo Selo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jadran LPExpected goals in this matchDugo Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.14

Jadran LP

1.95

Dugo Selo

1.14

Jadran LP creates 71% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

2.18

creates per match

1.25

1.03

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Jadran LP

2.18

Dugo Selo

1.25

allows per match

Jadran LP

1.03

Dugo Selo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par

Dugo Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

Dugo Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw

78%

Jadran LP or Dugo Selo

78%

Draw or Dugo Selo

44%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+

33%

Dugo Selo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals

86%

Jadran LP 2+ goals

58%

Jadran LP 3+ goals

31%

Dugo Selo 1+ goals

68%

Dugo Selo 2+ goals

32%

Dugo Selo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)

72%

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Dugo Selo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.18 + Dugo Selo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.95

Dugo Selo attack 1.25 + Jadran LP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jadran LP scores more

56%

level

22%

Dugo Selo scores more

22%

Jadran LP at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff