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Dugo Selo vs Jadran LP — Second NL 2022

Dugo Selo
Dugo Selo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Jadran LP
Jadran LP
5/24/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 29Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dugo Selo32%
×Draw27%
Jadran LP42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dugo Selo
1.14
Jadran LP
1.35

Jadran LP creates 18% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Dugo Selo
1.35
Jadran LP
1.38

allows per match

Dugo Selo
1.33
Jadran LP
0.93

finishing

Dugo Selo+0.00on par
Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugo Selo ↓

Jadran LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dugo Selo or draw
58%
Dugo Selo or Jadran LP
73%
Draw or Jadran LP
68%

Winning margin

Dugo Selo wins by 2+
13%
Jadran LP wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dugo Selo 1+ goals
68%
Dugo Selo 2+ goals
32%
Dugo Selo 3+ goals
11%
Jadran LP 1+ goals
74%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
39%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)
43%
Jadran LP (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugo Selo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugo Selo attack 1.35 + Jadran LP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Jadran LP attack 1.38 + Dugo Selo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dugo Selo scores more
32%
level
27%
Jadran LP scores more
42%

Jadran LP at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dugo Selo vs Jadran LP

Jadran LP beat Dugo Selo 3-0 in Second NL on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Dugo Selo.