Jadran LP 2–3 Bjelovar: Result & Stats | Second NL

Jadran LP

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Bjelovar

9/14/2024

Second NL · Round 4Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Jadran LP54%

×Draw23%

Bjelovar23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jadran LPExpected goals in this matchBjelovar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.11

Jadran LP

1.83

Bjelovar

1.11

Jadran LP creates 65% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

2.18

creates per match

1.19

1.03

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Jadran LP

2.18

Bjelovar

1.19

allows per match

Jadran LP

1.03

Bjelovar

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par

Bjelovar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

Bjelovar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw

77%

Jadran LP or Bjelovar

77%

Draw or Bjelovar

46%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+

31%

Bjelovar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals

84%

Jadran LP 2+ goals

54%

Jadran LP 3+ goals

28%

Bjelovar 1+ goals

67%

Bjelovar 2+ goals

30%

Bjelovar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)

70%

Bjelovar (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Bjelovar away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.18 + Bjelovar defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bjelovar attack 1.19 + Jadran LP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jadran LP scores more

54%

level

23%

Bjelovar scores more

23%

Jadran LP at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff