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Bjelovar vs Jadran LP — Second NL 2022

Bjelovar
Bjelovar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jadran LP
Jadran LP
3/16/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 19Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bjelovar39%
×Draw26%
Jadran LP35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjelovar
1.41
Jadran LP
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Bjelovar
1.88
Jadran LP
1.38

allows per match

Bjelovar
1.27
Jadran LP
0.93

finishing

Bjelovar+0.00on par
Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjelovar ↓

Jadran LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bjelovar or draw
65%
Bjelovar or Jadran LP
74%
Draw or Jadran LP
61%

Winning margin

Bjelovar wins by 2+
18%
Jadran LP wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bjelovar 1+ goals
76%
Bjelovar 2+ goals
41%
Bjelovar 3+ goals
17%
Jadran LP 1+ goals
73%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
38%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bjelovar (draw refunded)
53%
Jadran LP (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjelovar at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjelovar attack 1.88 + Jadran LP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.41

Jadran LP attack 1.38 + Bjelovar defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bjelovar scores more
39%
level
26%
Jadran LP scores more
35%

Bjelovar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bjelovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Bjelovar 2–1 Jadran LP

Bjelovar beat Jadran LP 2-1 in Second NL on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bjelovar.