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Jacuipense U20 vs Catuense U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Jacuipense U20
Jacuipense U20
FT
3 – 0
Catuense U20
Catuense U20
3/17/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Jacuipense U2063%
×Draw18%
Catuense U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacuipense U20
2.56
Catuense U20
1.34

Jacuipense U20 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

creates per match

Jacuipense U20
2.04
Catuense U20
1.46

allows per match

Jacuipense U20
1.22
Catuense U20
3.08

finishing

Jacuipense U20+0.00on par
Catuense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacuipense U20 ↓

Catuense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Jacuipense U20 or draw
81%
Jacuipense U20 or Catuense U20
82%
Draw or Catuense U20
37%

Winning margin

Jacuipense U20 wins by 2+
42%
Catuense U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jacuipense U20 1+ goals
92%
Jacuipense U20 2+ goals
72%
Jacuipense U20 3+ goals
46%
Catuense U20 1+ goals
74%
Catuense U20 2+ goals
39%
Catuense U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jacuipense U20 (draw refunded)
77%
Catuense U20 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacuipense U20 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Catuense U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacuipense U20 attack 2.04 + Catuense U20 defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.56

Catuense U20 attack 1.46 + Jacuipense U20 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Jacuipense U20 scores more
63%
level
18%
Catuense U20 scores more
19%

Jacuipense U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jacuipense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Jacuipense U20 3–0 Catuense U20

Jacuipense U20 beat Catuense U20 3-0 in Baiano U20 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Salvador de Bahia, Bahia.