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Catuense U20 vs Jacuipense U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Catuense U20
Catuense U20
FT
0 – 3
Jacuipense U20
Jacuipense U20
5/18/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Catuense U2022%
×Draw22%
Jacuipense U2056%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Catuense U20
1.13
Jacuipense U20
1.92

Jacuipense U20 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 24 away

creates per match

Catuense U20
1.08
Jacuipense U20
1.38

allows per match

Catuense U20
2.46
Jacuipense U20
1.17

finishing

Catuense U20+0.00on par
Jacuipense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catuense U20 ↓

Jacuipense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Catuense U20 or draw
44%
Catuense U20 or Jacuipense U20
78%
Draw or Jacuipense U20
78%

Winning margin

Catuense U20 wins by 2+
8%
Jacuipense U20 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Catuense U20 1+ goals
68%
Catuense U20 2+ goals
31%
Catuense U20 3+ goals
11%
Jacuipense U20 1+ goals
85%
Jacuipense U20 2+ goals
57%
Jacuipense U20 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Catuense U20 (draw refunded)
28%
Jacuipense U20 (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catuense U20 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Jacuipense U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catuense U20 attack 1.08 + Jacuipense U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Jacuipense U20 attack 1.38 + Catuense U20 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Catuense U20 scores more
22%
level
22%
Jacuipense U20 scores more
56%

Jacuipense U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jacuipense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Catuense U20 vs Jacuipense U20

Jacuipense U20 beat Catuense U20 3-0 in Baiano U20 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro in Alagoinhas, Bahia.