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Jacobinense vs Itabuna — Baiano - 2 2019

Jacobinense
Jacobinense
FT
2 – 2
Itabuna
Itabuna
8/13/2022Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · FinalsEstádio Municipal José Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Jacobinense26%
×Draw25%
Itabuna49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacobinense
1.08
Itabuna
1.59

Itabuna creates 47% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Jacobinense
1.17
Itabuna
1.69

allows per match

Jacobinense
1.50
Itabuna
1.00

finishing

Jacobinense+0.00on par
Itabuna+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacobinense ↓

Itabuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jacobinense or draw
51%
Jacobinense or Itabuna
75%
Draw or Itabuna
74%

Winning margin

Jacobinense wins by 2+
10%
Itabuna wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Jacobinense 1+ goals
66%
Jacobinense 2+ goals
29%
Jacobinense 3+ goals
10%
Itabuna 1+ goals
80%
Itabuna 2+ goals
47%
Itabuna 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Jacobinense (draw refunded)
34%
Itabuna (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacobinense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Itabuna away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacobinense attack 1.17 + Itabuna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Itabuna attack 1.69 + Jacobinense defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jacobinense scores more
26%
level
25%
Itabuna scores more
49%

Itabuna at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Itabuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jacobinense vs Itabuna

Jacobinense and Itabuna drew 2-2 in Baiano - 2 on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Rocha in Jacobina, Bahia.