Itabuna 2–1 Jacobinense: Result & Stats

Itabuna

FT

2 – 1

Jacobinense

7/31/2022

Baiano - 2 · FinalsEstádio Municipal Pedro Caetano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Itabuna59%

×Draw24%

Jacobinense17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItabunaExpected goals in this matchJacobinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.77

Itabuna

1.67

Jacobinense

0.77

Itabuna creates 117% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.64

creates per match

0.90

0.64

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Itabuna

1.64

Jacobinense

0.90

allows per match

Itabuna

0.64

Jacobinense

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Itabuna+0.00on par

Jacobinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabuna ↓

Jacobinense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Itabuna or draw

83%

Itabuna or Jacobinense

76%

Draw or Jacobinense

41%

Winning margin

Itabuna wins by 2+

33%

Jacobinense wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Itabuna 1+ goals

81%

Itabuna 2+ goals

50%

Itabuna 3+ goals

23%

Jacobinense 1+ goals

54%

Jacobinense 2+ goals

18%

Jacobinense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Itabuna (draw refunded)

78%

Jacobinense (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabuna at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Jacobinense away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabuna attack 1.64 + Jacobinense defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

Jacobinense attack 0.90 + Itabuna defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Itabuna scores more

59%

level

24%

Jacobinense scores more

17%

Itabuna at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Itabuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff