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Jacobina U20 vs Estrela De Marco U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Jacobina U20
Jacobina U20
FT
0 – 1
Estrela De Marco U20
Estrela De Marco U20
3/23/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal José Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jacobina U2037%
×Draw29%
Estrela De Marco U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacobina U20
1.15
Estrela De Marco U20
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

creates per match

Jacobina U20
1.29
Estrela De Marco U20
1.20

allows per match

Jacobina U20
1.00
Estrela De Marco U20
1.00

finishing

Jacobina U20+0.00on par
Estrela De Marco U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacobina U20 ↓

Estrela De Marco U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jacobina U20 or draw
66%
Jacobina U20 or Estrela De Marco U20
71%
Draw or Estrela De Marco U20
63%

Winning margin

Jacobina U20 wins by 2+
15%
Estrela De Marco U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jacobina U20 1+ goals
68%
Jacobina U20 2+ goals
32%
Jacobina U20 3+ goals
11%
Estrela De Marco U20 1+ goals
67%
Estrela De Marco U20 2+ goals
30%
Estrela De Marco U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jacobina U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Estrela De Marco U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacobina U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Estrela De Marco U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacobina U20 attack 1.29 + Estrela De Marco U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Estrela De Marco U20 attack 1.20 + Jacobina U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jacobina U20 scores more
37%
level
29%
Estrela De Marco U20 scores more
34%

Jacobina U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jacobina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jacobina U20 vs Estrela De Marco U20

Estrela De Marco U20 beat Jacobina U20 1-0 in Baiano U20 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Rocha in Jacobina, Bahia.