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Estrela De Marco U20 vs Jacobina U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Estrela De Marco U20
Estrela De Marco U20
FT
1 – 0
Jacobina U20
Jacobina U20
5/10/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Estrela De Marco U2065%
×Draw21%
Jacobina U2014%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrela De Marco U20
1.89
Jacobina U20
0.74

Estrela De Marco U20 creates 155% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

creates per match

Estrela De Marco U20
1.88
Jacobina U20
0.86

allows per match

Estrela De Marco U20
0.63
Jacobina U20
1.90

finishing

Estrela De Marco U20+0.00on par
Jacobina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela De Marco U20 ↓

Jacobina U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Estrela De Marco U20 or draw
86%
Estrela De Marco U20 or Jacobina U20
79%
Draw or Jacobina U20
35%

Winning margin

Estrela De Marco U20 wins by 2+
39%
Jacobina U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Estrela De Marco U20 1+ goals
85%
Estrela De Marco U20 2+ goals
56%
Estrela De Marco U20 3+ goals
29%
Jacobina U20 1+ goals
52%
Jacobina U20 2+ goals
17%
Jacobina U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Estrela De Marco U20 (draw refunded)
82%
Jacobina U20 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela De Marco U20 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

Jacobina U20 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela De Marco U20 attack 1.88 + Jacobina U20 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.89

Jacobina U20 attack 0.86 + Estrela De Marco U20 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Estrela De Marco U20 scores more
65%
level
21%
Jacobina U20 scores more
14%

Estrela De Marco U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Estrela De Marco U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Estrela De Marco U20 1–0 Jacobina U20

Estrela De Marco U20 beat Jacobina U20 1-0 in Baiano U20 on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Salvador de Bahia, Bahia.