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Jacó vs Antioquia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Jacó
Jacó
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Antioquia
Antioquia
9/2/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 8Estadio de Damas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jacó43%
×Draw22%
Antioquia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jacó
1.88
Antioquia
1.67

Jacó creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 32 away

creates per match

Jacó
1.82
Antioquia
1.16

allows per match

Jacó
2.18
Antioquia
1.94

finishing

Jacó+0.00on par
Antioquia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jacó ↓

Antioquia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Jacó or draw
65%
Jacó or Antioquia
78%
Draw or Antioquia
57%

Winning margin

Jacó wins by 2+
23%
Antioquia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jacó 1+ goals
85%
Jacó 2+ goals
56%
Jacó 3+ goals
29%
Antioquia 1+ goals
81%
Antioquia 2+ goals
50%
Antioquia 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jacó (draw refunded)
55%
Antioquia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jacó at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

Antioquia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jacó attack 1.82 + Antioquia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.88

Antioquia attack 1.16 + Jacó defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jacó scores more
43%
level
22%
Antioquia scores more
35%

Jacó at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jacó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Jacó 1–3 Antioquia

Antioquia beat Jacó 3-1 in Liga de Ascenso on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de Damas in Quepos.