Antioquia 1–0 Jacó: Result & Stats

Antioquia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jacó

2/16/2024

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 8Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Antioquia56%

×Draw20%

Jacó24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntioquiaExpected goals in this matchJacó

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.48

Antioquia

2.32

Jacó

1.48

Antioquia creates 57% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 12 away

1.47

creates per match

1.33

1.63

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

Antioquia

1.47

Jacó

1.33

allows per match

Antioquia

1.63

Jacó

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antioquia+0.00on par

Jacó+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antioquia ↓

Jacó →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Antioquia or draw

76%

Antioquia or Jacó

80%

Draw or Jacó

44%

Winning margin

Antioquia wins by 2+

35%

Jacó wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Antioquia 1+ goals

90%

Antioquia 2+ goals

67%

Antioquia 3+ goals

40%

Jacó 1+ goals

77%

Jacó 2+ goals

43%

Jacó 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Antioquia (draw refunded)

70%

Jacó (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antioquia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Jacó away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antioquia attack 1.47 + Jacó defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.32

Jacó attack 1.33 + Antioquia defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Antioquia scores more

56%

level

20%

Jacó scores more

24%

Antioquia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Antioquia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff