Teuta Durrës 2–0 Skenderbeu Korce: Result & Stats

Teuta Durrës

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Skenderbeu Korce

B. Krasniqi 36'

A. Peposhi 26'

9/27/2014

Superliga · Round 6Stadiumi Niko Dovana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Teuta Durrës45%

×Draw29%

Skenderbeu Korce26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Teuta DurrësExpected goals in this matchSkenderbeu Korce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.87

Teuta Durrës

1.23

Skenderbeu Korce

0.87

Teuta Durrës creates 41% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 110 away

1.15

creates per match

0.88

0.86

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Teuta Durrës

1.15

Skenderbeu Korce

0.88

allows per match

Teuta Durrës

0.86

Skenderbeu Korce

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Teuta Durrës+0.00on par

Skenderbeu Korce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teuta Durrës ↓

Skenderbeu Korce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Teuta Durrës or draw

74%

Teuta Durrës or Skenderbeu Korce

71%

Draw or Skenderbeu Korce

55%

Winning margin

Teuta Durrës wins by 2+

20%

Skenderbeu Korce wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Teuta Durrës 1+ goals

71%

Teuta Durrës 2+ goals

35%

Teuta Durrës 3+ goals

13%

Skenderbeu Korce 1+ goals

58%

Skenderbeu Korce 2+ goals

22%

Skenderbeu Korce 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Teuta Durrës (draw refunded)

63%

Skenderbeu Korce (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teuta Durrës at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 147 matches

Skenderbeu Korce away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.30 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teuta Durrës attack 1.15 + Skenderbeu Korce defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Skenderbeu Korce attack 0.88 + Teuta Durrës defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Teuta Durrës scores more

45%

level

29%

Skenderbeu Korce scores more

26%

Teuta Durrës at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Teuta Durrës will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

A. Peposhi← X. Shabani

26'

A. Peposhi

36'

B. Krasniqi

46'

Dhiego Martins← B. Berisha

61'

B. Pepa← Rafael Magalhães

62'

Marconi← A. Ribaj

65'

B. Dita← E. Koreshi

Teuta

Skenderbeu

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

12'▲A. Peposhi←▼X. Shabani

61'▲B. Pepa←▼Rafael Magalhães

65'▲B. Dita←▼E. Koreshi

Teuta Durrës substitutes

PeposhiPepaDitaPremçiHysenbelliuFallOsmani

46'▲Dhiego Martins←▼B. Berisha

62'▲Marconi←▼A. Ribaj

Skenderbeu Korce substitutes

MartinsMarconiDimoJashanicaAlikajLlapanjiAbazi