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Izvor Gorski izvor vs Atletik Kuklen — Third League - Southeast 2018

Izvor Gorski izvor
Izvor Gorski izvor
FT
4 – 0
Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
10/10/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 10Stadion Gorski Izvor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Izvor Gorski izvor61%
×Draw22%
Atletik Kuklen17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Izvor Gorski izvor
1.93
Atletik Kuklen
0.91

Izvor Gorski izvor creates 112% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 135 away

creates per match

Izvor Gorski izvor
1.65
Atletik Kuklen
1.00

allows per match

Izvor Gorski izvor
0.82
Atletik Kuklen
2.21

finishing

Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par
Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izvor Gorski izvor ↓

Atletik Kuklen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Izvor Gorski izvor or draw
83%
Izvor Gorski izvor or Atletik Kuklen
78%
Draw or Atletik Kuklen
39%

Winning margin

Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+
36%
Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals
85%
Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals
57%
Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals
30%
Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
60%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
23%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)
78%
Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izvor Gorski izvor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Atletik Kuklen away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 1.65 + Atletik Kuklen defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.93

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.00 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Izvor Gorski izvor scores more
61%
level
22%
Atletik Kuklen scores more
17%

Izvor Gorski izvor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Izvor Gorski izvor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Izvor Gorski izvor 4–0 Atletik Kuklen

Izvor Gorski izvor beat Atletik Kuklen 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gorski Izvor in Gorski Izvor.