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Atletik Kuklen vs Izvor Gorski izvor — Third League - Southeast 2018

Atletik Kuklen
Atletik Kuklen
FT
0 – 0
Izvor Gorski izvor
Izvor Gorski izvor
4/17/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 27Stadion Kuklen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atletik Kuklen44%
×Draw27%
Izvor Gorski izvor29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletik Kuklen
1.35
Izvor Gorski izvor
1.04

Atletik Kuklen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.46
Izvor Gorski izvor
0.88

allows per match

Atletik Kuklen
1.21
Izvor Gorski izvor
1.24

finishing

Atletik Kuklen+0.00on par
Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletik Kuklen ↓

Izvor Gorski izvor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletik Kuklen or draw
71%
Atletik Kuklen or Izvor Gorski izvor
73%
Draw or Izvor Gorski izvor
56%

Winning margin

Atletik Kuklen wins by 2+
20%
Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atletik Kuklen 1+ goals
74%
Atletik Kuklen 2+ goals
39%
Atletik Kuklen 3+ goals
15%
Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals
65%
Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals
28%
Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atletik Kuklen (draw refunded)
60%
Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletik Kuklen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches

Izvor Gorski izvor away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletik Kuklen attack 1.46 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 0.88 + Atletik Kuklen defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atletik Kuklen scores more
44%
level
27%
Izvor Gorski izvor scores more
29%

Atletik Kuklen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atletik Kuklen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Atletik Kuklen 0–0 Izvor Gorski izvor

Atletik Kuklen and Izvor Gorski izvor drew 0-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kuklen in Kuklen.