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Izarra vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Izarra
Izarra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
10/13/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Merkatondoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Izarra39%
×Draw26%
Cultural Leonesa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Izarra
1.37
Cultural Leonesa
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 15 away

creates per match

Izarra
1.41
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

allows per match

Izarra
1.22
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

finishing

Izarra+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izarra ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Izarra or draw
65%
Izarra or Cultural Leonesa
74%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
61%

Winning margin

Izarra wins by 2+
18%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Izarra 1+ goals
75%
Izarra 2+ goals
40%
Izarra 3+ goals
16%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
72%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
36%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Izarra (draw refunded)
53%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izarra at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izarra attack 1.41 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.37

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.33 + Izarra defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Izarra scores more
39%
level
26%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
35%

Izarra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Izarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Izarra 0 – 1 Cultural Leonesa

Cultural Leonesa beat Izarra 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Merkatondoa in Lizarra.