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Cultural Leonesa vs Izarra — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Izarra
Izarra
2/29/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cultural Leonesa64%
×Draw22%
Izarra14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.79
Izarra
0.68

Cultural Leonesa creates 163% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.92
Izarra
0.74

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.62
Izarra
1.67

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Izarra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Izarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
86%
Cultural Leonesa or Izarra
78%
Draw or Izarra
36%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
37%
Izarra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
83%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
53%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
26%
Izarra 1+ goals
49%
Izarra 2+ goals
15%
Izarra 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
82%
Izarra (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Izarra away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.92 + Izarra defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.79

Izarra attack 0.74 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
64%
level
22%
Izarra scores more
14%

Cultural Leonesa at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cultural Leonesa vs Izarra

Cultural Leonesa and Izarra drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.