Izarra 3–0 Barakaldo: Result & Stats

Izarra

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barakaldo

4/25/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Merkatondoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Izarra52%

×Draw25%

Barakaldo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IzarraExpected goals in this matchBarakaldo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.02

Izarra

1.64

Barakaldo

1.02

Izarra creates 61% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

1.41

creates per match

0.82

1.22

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Izarra

1.41

Barakaldo

0.82

allows per match

Izarra

1.22

Barakaldo

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Izarra+0.00on par

Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izarra ↓

Barakaldo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Izarra or draw

76%

Izarra or Barakaldo

75%

Draw or Barakaldo

48%

Winning margin

Izarra wins by 2+

28%

Barakaldo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Izarra 1+ goals

81%

Izarra 2+ goals

49%

Izarra 3+ goals

23%

Barakaldo 1+ goals

64%

Barakaldo 2+ goals

27%

Barakaldo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Izarra (draw refunded)

69%

Barakaldo (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izarra at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izarra attack 1.41 + Barakaldo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.64

Barakaldo attack 0.82 + Izarra defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Izarra scores more

52%

level

25%

Barakaldo scores more

24%

Izarra at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Izarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff