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Barakaldo vs Izarra — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Barakaldo
Barakaldo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Izarra
Izarra
9/8/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Barakaldo46%
×Draw26%
Izarra28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barakaldo
1.48
Izarra
1.10

Barakaldo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

Barakaldo
1.29
Izarra
0.74

allows per match

Barakaldo
1.46
Izarra
1.67

finishing

Barakaldo+0.00on par
Izarra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barakaldo ↓

Izarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barakaldo or draw
72%
Barakaldo or Izarra
74%
Draw or Izarra
54%

Winning margin

Barakaldo wins by 2+
23%
Izarra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Barakaldo 1+ goals
77%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
43%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
19%
Izarra 1+ goals
67%
Izarra 2+ goals
30%
Izarra 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barakaldo (draw refunded)
62%
Izarra (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barakaldo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Izarra away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barakaldo attack 1.29 + Izarra defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Izarra attack 0.74 + Barakaldo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Barakaldo scores more
46%
level
26%
Izarra scores more
28%

Barakaldo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Barakaldo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barakaldo vs Izarra

Izarra beat Barakaldo 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre in Barakaldo.