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Iwaki vs Fujieda MYFC — J2 League 2018

Iwaki
Iwaki
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fujieda MYFC
Fujieda MYFC
4/3/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 8Hawaiians Stadium Iwaki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Iwaki43%
×Draw26%
Fujieda MYFC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iwaki
1.48
Fujieda MYFC
1.24

Iwaki creates 19% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 59 away

creates per match

Iwaki
1.27
Fujieda MYFC
1.12

allows per match

Iwaki
1.36
Fujieda MYFC
1.68

finishing

Iwaki+0.00on par
Fujieda MYFC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iwaki ↓

Fujieda MYFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Iwaki or draw
68%
Iwaki or Fujieda MYFC
74%
Draw or Fujieda MYFC
57%

Winning margin

Iwaki wins by 2+
21%
Fujieda MYFC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Iwaki 1+ goals
77%
Iwaki 2+ goals
43%
Iwaki 3+ goals
19%
Fujieda MYFC 1+ goals
71%
Fujieda MYFC 2+ goals
35%
Fujieda MYFC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Iwaki (draw refunded)
57%
Fujieda MYFC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iwaki at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

Fujieda MYFC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.68 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iwaki attack 1.27 + Fujieda MYFC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Fujieda MYFC attack 1.12 + Iwaki defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Iwaki scores more
43%
level
26%
Fujieda MYFC scores more
32%

Iwaki at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Iwaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iwaki vs Fujieda MYFC

Iwaki beat Fujieda MYFC 3-0 in J2 League on April 3, 2024.

The match was played at Hawaiians Stadium Iwaki in Iwaki.