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Fujieda MYFC vs Iwaki — J2 League 2018

Fujieda MYFC
Fujieda MYFC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Iwaki
Iwaki
10/5/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 34Fujieda City General Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Fujieda MYFC35%
×Draw26%
Iwaki39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fujieda MYFC
1.25
Iwaki
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 59 away

creates per match

Fujieda MYFC
1.25
Iwaki
1.32

allows per match

Fujieda MYFC
1.36
Iwaki
1.25

finishing

Fujieda MYFC+0.00on par
Iwaki+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fujieda MYFC ↓

Iwaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fujieda MYFC or draw
61%
Fujieda MYFC or Iwaki
74%
Draw or Iwaki
65%

Winning margin

Fujieda MYFC wins by 2+
15%
Iwaki wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fujieda MYFC 1+ goals
71%
Fujieda MYFC 2+ goals
36%
Fujieda MYFC 3+ goals
13%
Iwaki 1+ goals
74%
Iwaki 2+ goals
39%
Iwaki 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Fujieda MYFC (draw refunded)
47%
Iwaki (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fujieda MYFC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

Iwaki away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fujieda MYFC attack 1.25 + Iwaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Iwaki attack 1.32 + Fujieda MYFC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fujieda MYFC scores more
35%
level
26%
Iwaki scores more
39%

Iwaki at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Iwaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fujieda MYFC vs Iwaki

Fujieda MYFC and Iwaki drew 1-1 in J2 League on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Fujieda City General Sports Park in Fujieda.