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Iváncsa vs Majosi — NB III - Southwest 2019

Iváncsa
Iváncsa
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Majosi
Majosi
S. Kovacs 79', 69'
L. Sili 66'
G. Durso 27'
V. Pal 42'
3/24/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 21Iváncsai Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Iváncsa64%
×Draw19%
Majosi17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iváncsa
2.28
Majosi
1.08

Iváncsa creates 111% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Iváncsa
2.96
Majosi
1.24

allows per match

Iváncsa
0.93
Majosi
1.60

finishing

Iváncsa+0.00on par
Majosi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iváncsa ↓

Majosi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Iváncsa or draw
83%
Iváncsa or Majosi
81%
Draw or Majosi
36%

Winning margin

Iváncsa wins by 2+
41%
Majosi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Iváncsa 1+ goals
90%
Iváncsa 2+ goals
66%
Iváncsa 3+ goals
39%
Majosi 1+ goals
66%
Majosi 2+ goals
29%
Majosi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Iváncsa (draw refunded)
79%
Majosi (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iváncsa at home — creates 2.96, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Majosi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iváncsa attack 2.96 + Majosi defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.28

Majosi attack 1.24 + Iváncsa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Iváncsa scores more
64%
level
19%
Majosi scores more
17%

Iváncsa at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Iváncsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
G. Durso
42'
V. Pal
66'
L. Sili
69'
S. Kovacs
79'
S. Kovacs

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iváncsa vs Majosi

Iváncsa beat Majosi 4-1 in NB III - Southwest on March 24, 2024.

Goals: G. Durso (27'), V. Pal (42'), L. Sili (66'), S. Kovacs (69', 79').

The match was played at Iváncsai Sportpálya in Iváncsa.