Iváncsa 7–0 Dunaföldvár: Result & Stats

Iváncsa

FT

7 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dunaföldvár

10/13/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 11Iváncsai Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Iváncsa76%

×Draw14%

Dunaföldvár11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IváncsaExpected goals in this matchDunaföldvár

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.03

1.08

Iváncsa

3.03

Dunaföldvár

1.08

Iváncsa creates 181% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

2.96

creates per match

1.23

0.93

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

Iváncsa

2.96

Dunaföldvár

1.23

allows per match

Iváncsa

0.93

Dunaföldvár

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iváncsa+0.00on par

Dunaföldvár+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iváncsa ↓

Dunaföldvár →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Iváncsa or draw

89%

Iváncsa or Dunaföldvár

86%

Draw or Dunaföldvár

24%

Winning margin

Iváncsa wins by 2+

56%

Dunaföldvár wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Iváncsa 1+ goals

95%

Iváncsa 2+ goals

80%

Iváncsa 3+ goals

57%

Dunaföldvár 1+ goals

66%

Dunaföldvár 2+ goals

29%

Dunaföldvár 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Iváncsa (draw refunded)

88%

Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iváncsa at home — creates 2.96, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Dunaföldvár away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iváncsa attack 2.96 + Dunaföldvár defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 3.03

Dunaföldvár attack 1.23 + Iváncsa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Iváncsa scores more

76%

level

14%

Dunaföldvár scores more

11%

Iváncsa at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Iváncsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff