Dunaföldvár 0–3 Iváncsa: Result & Stats

Dunaföldvár

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Iváncsa

4/27/2025

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 26Dunaföldvár FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dunaföldvár27%

×Draw22%

Iváncsa51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunaföldvárExpected goals in this matchIváncsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.92

Dunaföldvár

1.34

Iváncsa

1.92

Iváncsa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.53

creates per match

1.96

1.87

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Dunaföldvár

1.53

Iváncsa

1.96

allows per match

Dunaföldvár

1.87

Iváncsa

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunaföldvár+0.00on par

Iváncsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaföldvár ↓

Iváncsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Dunaföldvár or draw

49%

Dunaföldvár or Iváncsa

78%

Draw or Iváncsa

73%

Winning margin

Dunaföldvár wins by 2+

11%

Iváncsa wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Dunaföldvár 1+ goals

74%

Dunaföldvár 2+ goals

39%

Dunaföldvár 3+ goals

15%

Iváncsa 1+ goals

85%

Iváncsa 2+ goals

57%

Iváncsa 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)

35%

Iváncsa (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaföldvár at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Iváncsa away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaföldvár attack 1.53 + Iváncsa defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Iváncsa attack 1.96 + Dunaföldvár defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dunaföldvár scores more

27%

level

22%

Iváncsa scores more

51%

Iváncsa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Iváncsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff