Iváncsa 7–0 Bánk: Result & Stats

Iváncsa

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Bánk

8/17/2022

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 4Iváncsai Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Iváncsa73%

×Draw16%

Bánk12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IváncsaExpected goals in this matchBánk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

0.95

Iváncsa

2.62

Bánk

0.95

Iváncsa creates 176% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 17 away

2.42

creates per match

1.06

0.83

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Iváncsa

2.42

Bánk

1.06

allows per match

Iváncsa

0.83

Bánk

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iváncsa+0.00on par

Bánk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iváncsa ↓

Bánk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Iváncsa or draw

88%

Iváncsa or Bánk

84%

Draw or Bánk

27%

Winning margin

Iváncsa wins by 2+

51%

Bánk wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Iváncsa 1+ goals

93%

Iváncsa 2+ goals

73%

Iváncsa 3+ goals

48%

Bánk 1+ goals

61%

Bánk 2+ goals

25%

Bánk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Iváncsa (draw refunded)

86%

Bánk (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iváncsa at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Bánk away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iváncsa attack 2.42 + Bánk defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.62

Bánk attack 1.06 + Iváncsa defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Iváncsa scores more

73%

level

16%

Bánk scores more

12%

Iváncsa at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Iváncsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff