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Bánk vs Iváncsa — NB III - Northwest 2019

Bánk
Bánk
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Iváncsa
Iváncsa
B. Barta 89'
P. Banyai 80', 18'
2/26/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 23Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bánk15%
×Draw20%
Iváncsa65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bánk
0.90
Iváncsa
2.13

Iváncsa creates 137% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 66 away

creates per match

Bánk
0.74
Iváncsa
1.74

allows per match

Bánk
2.53
Iváncsa
1.06

finishing

Bánk+0.00on par
Iváncsa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bánk ↓

Iváncsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bánk or draw
35%
Bánk or Iváncsa
80%
Draw or Iváncsa
85%

Winning margin

Bánk wins by 2+
5%
Iváncsa wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Bánk 1+ goals
59%
Bánk 2+ goals
23%
Bánk 3+ goals
6%
Iváncsa 1+ goals
88%
Iváncsa 2+ goals
63%
Iváncsa 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Bánk (draw refunded)
19%
Iváncsa (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bánk at home — creates 0.74, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Iváncsa away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bánk attack 0.74 + Iváncsa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.90

Iváncsa attack 1.74 + Bánk defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bánk scores more
15%
level
20%
Iváncsa scores more
65%

Iváncsa at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Iváncsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
P. Banyai
80'
P. Banyai
89'
B. Barta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bánk vs Iváncsa

Iváncsa beat Bánk 3-0 in NB III - Northwest on February 26, 2023.

Goals: P. Banyai (18', 80'), B. Barta (89').

The match was played at Szentmarjay Tibor Városi Stadion in Eger.