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ITZ Sport vs IAPE — Maranhense - 2 2026

ITZ Sport
ITZ Sport
FT
0 – 3
IAPE
IAPEadvanced
11/17/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Semi-finalsCT Maranhão do Sul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ITZ Sport24%
×Draw27%
IAPE49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ITZ Sport
0.92
IAPE
1.42

IAPE creates 54% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

ITZ Sport
1.50
IAPE
1.33

allows per match

ITZ Sport
1.50
IAPE
0.33

finishing

ITZ Sport+0.00on par
IAPE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ITZ Sport ↓

IAPE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

ITZ Sport or draw
51%
ITZ Sport or IAPE
73%
Draw or IAPE
76%

Winning margin

ITZ Sport wins by 2+
8%
IAPE wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

ITZ Sport 1+ goals
60%
ITZ Sport 2+ goals
23%
ITZ Sport 3+ goals
7%
IAPE 1+ goals
76%
IAPE 2+ goals
41%
IAPE 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

ITZ Sport (draw refunded)
33%
IAPE (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ITZ Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

IAPE away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ITZ Sport attack 1.50 + IAPE defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

IAPE attack 1.33 + ITZ Sport defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ITZ Sport scores more
24%
level
27%
IAPE scores more
49%

IAPE at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "IAPE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhense - 2: ITZ Sport 0–3 IAPE

IAPE beat ITZ Sport 3-0 in Maranhense - 2 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at CT Maranhão do Sul in Imperatriz, Maranhão.