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IAPE vs ITZ Sport — Maranhense - 2 2026

IAPE
IAPEadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
ITZ Sport
ITZ Sport
11/21/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Semi-finalsEstádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

IAPE74%
×Draw17%
ITZ Sport10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IAPE
2.31
ITZ Sport
0.69

IAPE creates 235% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

IAPE
3.75
ITZ Sport
0.88

allows per match

IAPE
0.50
ITZ Sport
0.88

finishing

IAPE+0.00on par
ITZ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IAPE ↓

ITZ Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

IAPE or draw
90%
IAPE or ITZ Sport
83%
Draw or ITZ Sport
26%

Winning margin

IAPE wins by 2+
50%
ITZ Sport wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

IAPE 1+ goals
90%
IAPE 2+ goals
67%
IAPE 3+ goals
40%
ITZ Sport 1+ goals
50%
ITZ Sport 2+ goals
15%
ITZ Sport 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

IAPE (draw refunded)
89%
ITZ Sport (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IAPE at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

ITZ Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IAPE attack 3.75 + ITZ Sport defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 2.31

ITZ Sport attack 0.88 + IAPE defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

IAPE scores more
74%
level
17%
ITZ Sport scores more
10%

IAPE at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "IAPE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

IAPE 3 – 1 ITZ Sport

IAPE beat ITZ Sport 3-1 in Maranhense - 2 on November 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos in São Luís, Maranhão.