ITZ Sport 4–1 Americano Bacabal: Result & Stats

ITZ Sport

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Americano Bacabal

10/11/2025

Maranhense - 2 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

ITZ Sport68%

×Draw18%

Americano Bacabal14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ITZ SportExpected goals in this matchAmericano Bacabal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.00

ITZ Sport

2.42

Americano Bacabal

1.00

ITZ Sport creates 142% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

0.50

1.50

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

ITZ Sport

1.50

Americano Bacabal

0.50

allows per match

ITZ Sport

1.50

Americano Bacabal

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ITZ Sport+0.00on par

Americano Bacabal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ITZ Sport ↓

Americano Bacabal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

ITZ Sport or draw

86%

ITZ Sport or Americano Bacabal

82%

Draw or Americano Bacabal

32%

Winning margin

ITZ Sport wins by 2+

46%

Americano Bacabal wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

ITZ Sport 1+ goals

91%

ITZ Sport 2+ goals

69%

ITZ Sport 3+ goals

43%

Americano Bacabal 1+ goals

63%

Americano Bacabal 2+ goals

26%

Americano Bacabal 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

ITZ Sport (draw refunded)

83%

Americano Bacabal (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ITZ Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Americano Bacabal away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ITZ Sport attack 1.50 + Americano Bacabal defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Americano Bacabal attack 0.50 + ITZ Sport defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

ITZ Sport scores more

68%

level

18%

Americano Bacabal scores more

14%

ITZ Sport at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "ITZ Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff