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Americano Bacabal vs ITZ Sport — Maranhense - 2 2026

Americano Bacabal
Americano Bacabal
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ITZ Sport
ITZ Sport
10/8/2025Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Americano Bacabal42%
×Draw32%
ITZ Sport26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Americano Bacabal
1.08
ITZ Sport
0.79

Americano Bacabal creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Americano Bacabal
1.29
ITZ Sport
0.88

allows per match

Americano Bacabal
0.71
ITZ Sport
0.88

finishing

Americano Bacabal+0.00on par
ITZ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 71Over: 2971%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 64Yes: 3664%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Americano Bacabal ↓

ITZ Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Americano Bacabal or draw
74%
Americano Bacabal or ITZ Sport
68%
Draw or ITZ Sport
58%

Winning margin

Americano Bacabal wins by 2+
17%
ITZ Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Americano Bacabal 1+ goals
66%
Americano Bacabal 2+ goals
29%
Americano Bacabal 3+ goals
10%
ITZ Sport 1+ goals
55%
ITZ Sport 2+ goals
19%
ITZ Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Americano Bacabal (draw refunded)
61%
ITZ Sport (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Americano Bacabal at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

ITZ Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Americano Bacabal attack 1.29 + ITZ Sport defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

ITZ Sport attack 0.88 + Americano Bacabal defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Americano Bacabal scores more
42%
level
32%
ITZ Sport scores more
26%

Americano Bacabal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Americano Bacabal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhense - 2: Americano Bacabal 0–0 ITZ Sport

Americano Bacabal and ITZ Sport drew 0-0 in Maranhense - 2 on October 8, 2025.