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Ituzaingó vs Berazategui — Primera C 2026

Ituzaingó
Ituzaingó
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Berazategui
Berazategui
8/9/2024Primera CPrimera C · Clausura - 6Estadio de Ituzaingó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Ituzaingó38%
×Draw29%
Berazategui32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ituzaingó
1.14
Berazategui
1.02

Ituzaingó creates 12% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 143 away

creates per match

Ituzaingó
1.07
Berazategui
1.24

allows per match

Ituzaingó
0.79
Berazategui
1.20

finishing

Ituzaingó+0.00on par
Berazategui+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituzaingó ↓

Berazategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ituzaingó or draw
68%
Ituzaingó or Berazategui
71%
Draw or Berazategui
62%

Winning margin

Ituzaingó wins by 2+
16%
Berazategui wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ituzaingó 1+ goals
68%
Ituzaingó 2+ goals
32%
Ituzaingó 3+ goals
11%
Berazategui 1+ goals
64%
Berazategui 2+ goals
27%
Berazategui 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ituzaingó (draw refunded)
54%
Berazategui (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituzaingó at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.79 · 94 matches

Berazategui away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituzaingó attack 1.07 + Berazategui defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Berazategui attack 1.24 + Ituzaingó defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ituzaingó scores more
38%
level
29%
Berazategui scores more
32%

Ituzaingó at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ituzaingó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Ituzaingó 1–1 Berazategui

Ituzaingó and Berazategui drew 1-1 in Primera C on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Ituzaingó in Ituzaingó, Provincia de Buenos Aires.