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Berazategui vs Ituzaingó — Primera C 2026

Berazategui
Berazategui
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ituzaingó
Ituzaingó
3/26/2025Primera CPrimera C · Round 3Estadio Norman Lee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Berazategui39%
×Draw30%
Ituzaingó30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Berazategui
1.11
Ituzaingó
0.94

Berazategui creates 18% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 95 away

creates per match

Berazategui
1.35
Ituzaingó
0.94

allows per match

Berazategui
0.93
Ituzaingó
0.88

finishing

Berazategui+0.00on par
Ituzaingó+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berazategui ↓

Ituzaingó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Berazategui or draw
70%
Berazategui or Ituzaingó
70%
Draw or Ituzaingó
61%

Winning margin

Berazategui wins by 2+
16%
Ituzaingó wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Berazategui 1+ goals
67%
Berazategui 2+ goals
30%
Berazategui 3+ goals
10%
Ituzaingó 1+ goals
61%
Ituzaingó 2+ goals
24%
Ituzaingó 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Berazategui (draw refunded)
56%
Ituzaingó (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berazategui at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.93 · 139 matches

Ituzaingó away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.88 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berazategui attack 1.35 + Ituzaingó defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ituzaingó attack 0.94 + Berazategui defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Berazategui scores more
39%
level
30%
Ituzaingó scores more
30%

Berazategui at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Berazategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Berazategui 0–1 Ituzaingó

Ituzaingó beat Berazategui 1-0 in Primera C on March 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Norman Lee in Berazategui, Provincia de Buenos Aires.