Ituano 0–0 CRB: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ituano

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CRB

10/14/2023

Serie B · Round 32Estádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ituano45%

×Draw29%

CRB26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItuanoExpected goals in this matchCRB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.89

Ituano

1.27

CRB

0.89

Ituano creates 43% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 138 away

1.11

creates per match

0.89

0.88

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Ituano

1.11

CRB

0.89

allows per match

Ituano

0.88

CRB

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ituano+0.00on par

CRB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano ↓

CRB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ituano or draw

74%

Ituano or CRB

71%

Draw or CRB

55%

Winning margin

Ituano wins by 2+

21%

CRB wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ituano 1+ goals

72%

Ituano 2+ goals

36%

Ituano 3+ goals

14%

CRB 1+ goals

59%

CRB 2+ goals

22%

CRB 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ituano (draw refunded)

63%

CRB (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

CRB away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.43 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano attack 1.11 + CRB defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

CRB attack 0.89 + Ituano defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ituano scores more

45%

level

29%

CRB scores more

26%

Ituano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ituano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Pacheco

Ituano · D

7.3

Match Events

21'

Marthã Fernando

47'

Auremir

56'

Eduardo Person← Yann Rolim

56'

Hélio Borges← Wesley Pomba

63'

Saimon← Auremir

73'

Bruno Silva← Anderson Leite

73'

Rafael Longuine← João Paulo

76'

Thiaguinho← Marthã

78'

Ramon

85'

Thiaguinho

85'

Juninho Valoura← Lucas Lima

87'

Diogo Hereda

90+1'

Emerson Urso← Felipe Saraiva

90+1'

Matheus Cadorini← Diego Quirino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ItuanoCRB

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots7

7Corners2

21Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots7

5On Target0

6Off Target5

5Blocked2

9Inside Box6

7Outside Box1

Passing

46%Possession54%

333Total Passes403

247Accurate Passes307

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

21Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Serie B: Ituano 0–0 CRB

Ituano and CRB drew 0-0 in Serie B on October 14, 2023.

CRB controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior in Itu, São Paulo.

Ituano vs CRB — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Ituano 0–0 CRB