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CRB vs Ituano — Serie B 2026

CRB
CRB
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ituano
Ituano
Gegê 90+3'
7/20/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 16Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

CRB50%
×Draw27%
Ituano23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CRB
1.44
Ituano
0.89

CRB creates 62% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 57 away

creates per match

CRB
1.40
Ituano
0.96

allows per match

CRB
0.81
Ituano
1.49

finishing

CRB+0.00on par
Ituano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Ituano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CRB or draw
77%
CRB or Ituano
73%
Draw or Ituano
50%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+
25%
Ituano wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals
76%
CRB 2+ goals
42%
CRB 3+ goals
18%
Ituano 1+ goals
59%
Ituano 2+ goals
22%
Ituano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)
68%
Ituano (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 139 matches

Ituano away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.40 + Ituano defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ituano attack 0.96 + CRB defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CRB scores more
50%
level
27%
Ituano scores more
23%

CRB at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
GegêCRBCRB · M
8.0

Match Events

13'
Kauan Richard
32'
Wálber
45'
João Pedro
58'
Bruno Xavier← Salatiel
64'
João Neto← Falcão
70'
Neto Berola← Vinícius Paiva
70'
Marcinho← Léo Oliveira
72'
Mike← Léo Pereira
73'
F. Labandeira← Kleiton
87'
Aluísio← Miquéias
88'
Caio César← Gustavo Henrique
88'
Jorge← Ryan
88'
Gabriel Falcão← Rodrigo
89'
Saulo
90+2'
Claudinho
90+3'
Gegê

Possession

CRB: 73Ituano: 2773%CRB

Shots

CRB: 16Ituano: 1116CRB

Pass accuracy

CRB: 87Ituano: 6458%CRB

Statistics

CRBItuano
Overview
73%Possession27%
16Total Shots11
10Corners9
10Fouls17
Shots
16Total Shots11
3On Target3
4Off Target5
9Blocked3
11Inside Box6
5Outside Box5
Passing
73%Possession27%
538Total Passes202
468Accurate Passes129
87%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls17
1Yellow Cards4

Serie B: CRB 1–0 Ituano

CRB beat Ituano 1-0 in Serie B on July 20, 2024.

Goals: Gegê (90+3').

CRB controlled possession (73%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.