Ituano U20 1–1 Água Santa U20: Result & Stats

Ituano U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Água Santa U20

M. Andrade Camargo 13'

Arapiraca 6'

6/7/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Campo Auxiliar Dr. Novelli Junior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ituano U2062%

×Draw20%

Água Santa U2017%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ituano U20Expected goals in this matchÁgua Santa U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.02

Ituano U20

2.12

Água Santa U20

1.02

Ituano U20 creates 108% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

2.24

creates per match

1.19

0.86

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ituano U20

2.24

Água Santa U20

1.19

allows per match

Ituano U20

0.86

Água Santa U20

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ituano U20+0.00on par

Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ituano U20 or draw

83%

Ituano U20 or Água Santa U20

80%

Draw or Água Santa U20

38%

Winning margin

Ituano U20 wins by 2+

39%

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ituano U20 1+ goals

88%

Ituano U20 2+ goals

62%

Ituano U20 3+ goals

35%

Água Santa U20 1+ goals

64%

Água Santa U20 2+ goals

27%

Água Santa U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ituano U20 (draw refunded)

78%

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano U20 at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano U20 attack 2.24 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + Ituano U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ituano U20 scores more

62%

level

20%

Água Santa U20 scores more

17%

Ituano U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ituano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Arapiraca

13'

M. Andrade Camargo

53'

K. Gabriel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff