Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Água Santa U2039%
Ituano U2036%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 17 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Água Santa U20 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Água Santa U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches
Ituano U20 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Água Santa U20 attack 1.53 + Ituano U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49
Ituano U20 attack 1.80 + Água Santa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.43
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Água Santa U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Água Santa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Ibrachina U20
Guarani U20
RB Bragantino U20
Corinthians U20Água Santa U20
Santos U20
XV de Piracicaba U20
São Bento U20
Osasco Audax U20
SC Paulinense SP U20
Sfera U20
Santo André U20
Ferroviária U20
Desportivo Brasil U20
Capivariano U20
São Paulo U20
Palmeiras U20
Portuguesa Santista U20
Novorizontino U20
Gremio Prudente U20
Juventus U20
Sertãozinho U20
Mauá U20
Bandeirante U20
União São João U20
São Caetano U20
Aguai U20
Jabaquara U20
XV de Jaú U20
Flamengo SP U20
Ponte Preta U20
Mirassol U20
Portuguesa U20
Itapirense U20
América-SP U20Ituano U20
Botafogo SP U20
Velo Clube U20
EC São Bernardo U20
União Suzano U20
Oeste U20
Porto Football U20
Referencia U20
Tanabi SP U20If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Água Santa U20 host Ituano U20 on Friday, 24 July 2026 at 18:00. The match is part of the Paulista - U20 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Água Santa U20 vs Ituano U20
Água Santa U20 and Ituano U20 drew 0-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 24, 2026.
Goals: ? (61').