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Ittihad Tanger vs Renaissance Berkane — Botola Pro 2025

Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
2/11/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 17Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Ittihad Tanger32%
×Draw31%
Renaissance Berkane37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Tanger
0.92
Renaissance Berkane
1.01

Renaissance Berkane creates 10% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.95
Renaissance Berkane
1.02

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger
1.00
Renaissance Berkane
0.88

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw
63%
Ittihad Tanger or Renaissance Berkane
69%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
68%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
11%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
60%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
23%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
7%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
64%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
27%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
47%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.95 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.02 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more
32%
level
31%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
37%

Renaissance Berkane at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Ittihad Tanger 0–1 Renaissance Berkane

Renaissance Berkane beat Ittihad Tanger 1-0 in Botola Pro on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saniat Rmel in Tétouan.