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Ittihad Tanger vs Chabab Mohammédia — Botola Pro 2025

Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
12/8/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 13Stade du village sportif de Tanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ittihad Tanger42%
×Draw31%
Chabab Mohammédia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Tanger
1.11
Chabab Mohammédia
0.81

Ittihad Tanger creates 37% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 75 away

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.95
Chabab Mohammédia
0.63

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger
1.00
Chabab Mohammédia
1.28

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par
Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Chabab Mohammédia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw
74%
Ittihad Tanger or Chabab Mohammédia
69%
Draw or Chabab Mohammédia
58%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
18%
Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
67%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
30%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
10%
Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
56%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
19%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
62%
Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

Chabab Mohammédia away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.28 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.95 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.11

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.63 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more
42%
level
31%
Chabab Mohammédia scores more
26%

Ittihad Tanger at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ittihad Tanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ittihad Tanger vs Chabab Mohammédia

Ittihad Tanger and Chabab Mohammédia drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du village sportif de Tanger in Tangier.