Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chabab Mohammédia vs Ittihad Tanger — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
6/20/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 29Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia35%
×Draw28%
Ittihad Tanger37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Mohammédia
1.12
Ittihad Tanger
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 119 away

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia
0.87
Ittihad Tanger
0.89

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.44
Ittihad Tanger
1.37

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par
Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Ittihad Tanger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw
63%
Chabab Mohammédia or Ittihad Tanger
72%
Draw or Ittihad Tanger
65%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
14%
Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
67%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
31%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
10%
Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
69%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
33%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
48%
Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.44 · 75 matches

Ittihad Tanger away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.87 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.12

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.89 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more
35%
level
28%
Ittihad Tanger scores more
37%

Ittihad Tanger at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ittihad Tanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Chabab Mohammédia 1–2 Ittihad Tanger

Ittihad Tanger beat Chabab Mohammédia 2-1 in Botola Pro on June 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.