Ittihad Tanger 0–1 Chabab Mohammédia

Ittihad Tanger

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chabab Mohammédia

7/1/2021

Botola Pro · Round 24Grand Stade de Tanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ittihad Tanger43%

×Draw31%

Chabab Mohammédia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittihad TangerExpected goals in this matchChabab Mohammédia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.81

Ittihad Tanger

1.13

Chabab Mohammédia

0.81

Ittihad Tanger creates 40% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 75 away

0.97

creates per match

0.63

0.99

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger

0.97

Chabab Mohammédia

0.63

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger

0.99

Chabab Mohammédia

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Chabab Mohammédia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw

74%

Ittihad Tanger or Chabab Mohammédia

69%

Draw or Chabab Mohammédia

57%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+

18%

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals

68%

Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals

31%

Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals

11%

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals

56%

Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals

19%

Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)

62%

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.99 · 118 matches

Chabab Mohammédia away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.28 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.97 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.63 + Ittihad Tanger defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more

43%

level

31%

Chabab Mohammédia scores more

26%

Ittihad Tanger at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ittihad Tanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff