Ittihad Khemisset vs CR Khemis Zemamra — Botola 2 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 45+ matches
Ittihad Khemisset32%
CR Khemis Zemamra36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 75 home / 45 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under71
- Over29
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No63
- Yes37
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Ittihad Khemisset ↓
Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches
CR Khemis Zemamra away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + CR Khemis Zemamra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90
CR Khemis Zemamra attack 1.00 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
CR Khemis Zemamra at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "CR Khemis Zemamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
CR Khemis Zemamra
Raja Beni Mellal
Olympique Dcheïra
KAC Kenitra
Maghreb Fès
Racing de CasablancaIttihad Khemisset
Widad Témara
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
Riadi Salmi
Wydad Fès
Sidi Kacem
Chabab Ben Guerir
AS Salé
El Massira
Kasba TadlaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Ittihad Khemisset host CR Khemis Zemamra on Saturday, 1 October 2022 at 16:00. The match is part of the Botola 2 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Ittihad Khemisset vs CR Khemis Zemamra
CR Khemis Zemamra beat Ittihad Khemisset 1-0 in Botola 2 on October 1, 2022.
The match was played at Stade du 18 novembre in Khémisset.