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Ittihad Khemisset vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola 2 2025

Ittihad Khemisset
Ittihad Khemisset
FT
0 – 1
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
8/22/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 26Stade du 18 novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ittihad Khemisset49%
×Draw30%
Chabab RIF Hoceima21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Khemisset
1.23
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.70

Ittihad Khemisset creates 76% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.99
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.47

allows per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.92
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47

finishing

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Khemisset ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ittihad Khemisset or draw
79%
Ittihad Khemisset or Chabab RIF Hoceima
70%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
51%

Winning margin

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+
22%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals
71%
Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals
35%
Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals
13%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
50%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
16%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)
70%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.47 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ittihad Khemisset scores more
49%
level
30%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
21%

Ittihad Khemisset at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ittihad Khemisset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ittihad Khemisset vs Chabab RIF Hoceima

Chabab RIF Hoceima beat Ittihad Khemisset 1-0 in Botola 2 on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du 18 novembre in Khémisset.