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Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Ittihad Khemisset — Botola 2 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
0 – 2
Ittihad Khemisset
Ittihad Khemisset
12/8/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 11Stade Mimoun Al Arsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima38%
×Draw28%
Ittihad Khemisset34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.20
Ittihad Khemisset
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.13
Ittihad Khemisset
1.03

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.20
Ittihad Khemisset
1.27

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Ittihad Khemisset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
66%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Ittihad Khemisset
72%
Draw or Ittihad Khemisset
62%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
16%
Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
70%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
34%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
12%
Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals
67%
Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals
30%
Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
53%
Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Ittihad Khemisset away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.27 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.13 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Ittihad Khemisset attack 1.03 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
38%
level
28%
Ittihad Khemisset scores more
34%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Ittihad Khemisset

Ittihad Khemisset beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 2-0 in Botola 2 on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mimoun Al Arsi in Al Hoceima.