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Ittihad Khemisset vs Chabab Ben Guerir — Botola 2 2025

Ittihad Khemisset
Ittihad Khemisset
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
11/26/2022Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 12Stade du 18 novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ittihad Khemisset40%
×Draw31%
Chabab Ben Guerir29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Khemisset
1.10
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.88

Ittihad Khemisset creates 25% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 120 away

creates per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.99
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.83

allows per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.92
Chabab Ben Guerir
1.21

finishing

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par
Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Khemisset ↓

Chabab Ben Guerir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ittihad Khemisset or draw
71%
Ittihad Khemisset or Chabab Ben Guerir
69%
Draw or Chabab Ben Guerir
60%

Winning margin

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+
17%
Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals
67%
Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals
30%
Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals
10%
Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
59%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
22%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)
58%
Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

Chabab Ben Guerir away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.83 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ittihad Khemisset scores more
40%
level
31%
Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
29%

Ittihad Khemisset at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ittihad Khemisset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ittihad Khemisset vs Chabab Ben Guerir

Ittihad Khemisset and Chabab Ben Guerir drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stade du 18 novembre in Khémisset.