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Chabab Ben Guerir vs Ittihad Khemisset — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
FT
0 – 1
Ittihad Khemisset
Ittihad Khemisset
9/12/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 1Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir40%
×Draw31%
Ittihad Khemisset29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Ben Guerir
1.10
Ittihad Khemisset
0.89

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 24% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 75 away

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.93
Ittihad Khemisset
1.03

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.74
Ittihad Khemisset
1.27

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par
Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

Ittihad Khemisset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw
71%
Chabab Ben Guerir or Ittihad Khemisset
69%
Draw or Ittihad Khemisset
60%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
16%
Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
67%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
30%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
10%
Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals
59%
Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals
22%
Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
58%
Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.74 · 120 matches

Ittihad Khemisset away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.27 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.93 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Ittihad Khemisset attack 1.03 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
40%
level
31%
Ittihad Khemisset scores more
29%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Ittihad Khemisset

Ittihad Khemisset beat Chabab Ben Guerir 1-0 in Botola 2 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Ben Guerir in Ben Guerir.