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Ittihad Gharyan SC vs Al Shomooa SC — Premier League 2019

Ittihad Gharyan SC
Ittihad Gharyan SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Shomooa SC
Al Shomooa SC
4/15/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group B - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ittihad Gharyan SC27%
×Draw24%
Al Shomooa SC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Gharyan SC
1.19
Al Shomooa SC
1.69

Al Shomooa SC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ittihad Gharyan SC
0.88
Al Shomooa SC
1.63

allows per match

Ittihad Gharyan SC
1.75
Al Shomooa SC
1.50

finishing

Ittihad Gharyan SC+0.00on par
Al Shomooa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Gharyan SC ↓

Al Shomooa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ittihad Gharyan SC or draw
51%
Ittihad Gharyan SC or Al Shomooa SC
76%
Draw or Al Shomooa SC
73%

Winning margin

Ittihad Gharyan SC wins by 2+
11%
Al Shomooa SC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ittihad Gharyan SC 1+ goals
70%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 2+ goals
33%
Ittihad Gharyan SC 3+ goals
12%
Al Shomooa SC 1+ goals
82%
Al Shomooa SC 2+ goals
50%
Al Shomooa SC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Gharyan SC (draw refunded)
35%
Al Shomooa SC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Gharyan SC at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Al Shomooa SC away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Gharyan SC attack 0.88 + Al Shomooa SC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al Shomooa SC attack 1.63 + Ittihad Gharyan SC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ittihad Gharyan SC scores more
27%
level
24%
Al Shomooa SC scores more
49%

Al Shomooa SC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Shomooa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ittihad Gharyan SC vs Al Shomooa SC

Ittihad Gharyan SC and Al Shomooa SC drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 15, 2026.